Application of change point analysis to daily influenza-like illness emergency department visits

Background: The utility of healthcare utilization data from US emergency departments (EDs) for rapid monitoring of changes in influenza-like illness (ILI) activity was highlighted during the recent influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Monitoring has tended to rely on detection algorithms, such as the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS), which are limited in their ability to detect subtle changes and identify disease trends. Objective: To evaluate a complementary approach, change point analysis (CPA), for detecting changes in the incidence of ED visits due to ILI. Methodology and principal findings Data collected through the Distribute project (isdsdistribute.org), which aggregates data on ED visits for ILI from over 50 syndromic surveillance systems operated by state or local public health departments were used. The performance was compared of the cumulative sum (CUSUM) CPA method in combination with EARS and the performance of three CPA methods (CUSUM, structural change model and Bayesian) in detecting change points in daily time-series data from four contiguous US states participating in the Distribute network. Simulation data were generated to assess the impact of autocorrelation inherent in these time-series data on CPA performance. The CUSUM CPA method was robust in detecting change points with respect to autocorrelation in time-series data (coverage rates at 90% when −0.2≤ρ≤0.2 and 80% when −0.5≤ρ≤0.5). During the 2008–9 season, 21 change points were detected and ILI trends increased significantly after 12 of these change points and decreased nine times. In the 2009–10 flu season, we detected 11 change points and ILI trends increased significantly after two of these change points and decreased nine times. Using CPA combined with EARS to analyze automatically daily ED-based ILI data, a significant increase was detected of 3% in ILI on April 27, 2009, followed by multiple anomalies in the ensuing days, suggesting the onset of the H1N1 pandemic in the four contiguous states. Conclusions and significance As a complementary approach to EARS and other aberration detection methods, the CPA method can be used as a tool to detect subtle changes in time-series data more effectively and determine the moving direction (ie, up, down, or stable) in ILI trends between change points. The combined use of EARS and CPA might greatly improve the accuracy of outbreak detection in syndromic surveillance systems

PHSkb: A knowledgebase to support notifiable disease surveillance

BACKGROUND: Notifiable disease surveillance in the United States is predominantly a passive process that is often limited by poor timeliness and low sensitivity. Interoperable tools are needed that interact more seamlessly with existing clinical and laboratory data to improve notifiable disease surveillance. DESCRIPTION: The Public Health Surveillance Knowledgebase (PHSkb™) is a computer database designed to provide quick, easy access to domain knowledge regarding notifiable diseases and conditions in the United States. The database was developed using Protégé ontology and knowledgebase editing software. Data regarding the notifiable disease domain were collected via a comprehensive review of state health department websites and integrated with other information used to support the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS). Domain concepts were harmonized, wherever possible, to existing vocabulary standards. The knowledgebase can be used: 1) as the basis for a controlled vocabulary of reportable conditions needed for data aggregation in public health surveillance systems; 2) to provide queriable domain knowledge for public health surveillance partners; 3) to facilitate more automated case detection and surveillance decision support as a reusable component in an architecture for intelligent clinical, laboratory, and public health surveillance information systems. CONCLUSIONS: The PHSkb provides an extensible, interoperable system architecture component to support notifiable disease surveillance. Further development and testing of this resource is needed

Evaluation of reporting timeliness of public health surveillance systems for infectious diseases

BACKGROUND: Timeliness is a key performance measure of public health surveillance systems. Timeliness can vary by disease, intended use of the data, and public health system level. Studies were reviewed to describe methods used to evaluate timeliness and the reporting timeliness of National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) data was evaluated to determine if this system could support timely notification and state response to multistate outbreaks. METHODS: Published papers that quantitatively measured timeliness of infectious disease surveillance systems operating in the U.S. were reviewed. Median reporting timeliness lags were computed for selected nationally notifiable infectious diseases based on a state-assigned week number and various date types. The percentage of cases reported within the estimated incubation periods for each disease was also computed. RESULTS: Few studies have published quantitative measures of reporting timeliness; these studies do not evaluate timeliness in a standard manner. When timeliness of NNDSS data was evaluated, the median national reporting delay, based on date of disease onset, ranged from 12 days for meningococcal disease to 40 days for pertussis. Diseases with the longer incubation periods tended to have a higher percentage of cases reported within its incubation period. For acute hepatitis A virus infection, which had the longest incubation period of the diseases studied, more than 60% of cases were reported within one incubation period for each date type reported. For cryptosporidiosis, Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection, meningococcal disease, salmonellosis, and shigellosis, less than 40% of cases were reported within one incubation period for each reported date type. CONCLUSION: Published evaluations of infectious disease surveillance reporting timeliness are few in number and are not comparable. A more standardized approach for evaluating and describing surveillance system timeliness should be considered; a recommended methodology is presented. Our analysis of NNDSS reporting timeliness indicated that among the conditions evaluated (except for acute hepatitis A infection), the long reporting lag and the variability across states limits the usefulness of NNDSS data and aberration detection analysis of those data for identification of and timely response to multistate outbreaks. Further evaluation of the factors that contribute to NNDSS reporting timeliness is warranted

Endemic, Notifiable Bioterrorism-Related Diseases, United States, 1992–1999

Little information is available in the United States regarding the incidence and distribution of diseases caused by critical microbiologic agents with the potential for use in acts of terrorism. We describe disease-specific, demographic, geographic, and seasonal distribution of selected bioterrorism-related conditions (anthrax, botulism, brucellosis, cholera, plague, tularemia, and viral encephalitides) reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System in 1992–1999. Tularemia and brucellosis were the most frequently reported diseases. Anthrax, plague, western equine encephalitis, and eastern equine encephalitis were rare. Higher incidence rates for cholera and plague were noted in the western United States and for tularemia in the central United States. Overall, the incidence of conditions caused by these critical agents in the United States is low. Individual case reports should be considered sentinel events. For potential bioterrorism-related conditions that are endemic and have low incidence, the use of nontraditional surveillance methods and complementary data sources may enhance our ability to rapidly detect changes in disease incidence

LOINC and SNOMED CT Code Use in Electronic Laboratory Reporting - US, 2011

Electronic Laboratory Reporting (ELR) has the potential to be more accurate, timely, and cost-effective. However, the continuing use of non-standard, local codes to represent laboratory test results complicates the use of ELR data in public health practice. Use of structured and standardized coding system(s) to support the concepts represented by local codes improves the computational characteristics of ELR data. We examined the use of LOINC and SNOMED CT codes for coding laboratory tests in hospital laboratory reports. We found that the hospitals more frequently used LOINC codes than SNOMED CT in reporting test results

Coding of Electronic Laboratory Reports for Biosurveillance, Selected United States Hospitals, 2011

ObjectiveElectronic laboratory reporting has been promoted as a public health priority. The Office of the U.S. National Coordinator for Health Information Technology has endorsed two coding systems: Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes (LOINC) for laboratory test orders and Systemized Nomenclature of Medicine-Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) for test results.  Materials and MethodsWe examined LOINC and SNOMED CT code use in electronic laboratory data reported in 2011 by 63 non-federal hospitals to BioSense electronic syndromic surveillance system.  We analyzed the frequencies, characteristics, and code concepts of test orders and results.ResultsA total of 14,028,774 laboratory test orders or results were reported. No test orders used SNOMED CT codes. To describe test orders, 77% used a LOINC code, 17% had no value, and 6% had a non-informative value, “OTH”. Thirty-three percent (33%) of test results had missing or non-informative codes. For test results with at least one informative value, 91.8% had only LOINC codes, 0.7% had only SNOMED codes, and 7.4% had both. Of 108 SNOMED CT codes reported without LOINC codes, 45% could be matched to at least one LOINC code.ConclusionMissing or non-informative codes comprised almost a quarter of laboratory test orders and a third of test results reported to BioSense by non-federal hospitals. Use of LOINC codes for laboratory test results was more common than use of SNOMED CT. Complete and standardized coding could improve the usefulness of laboratory data for public health surveillance and response